中美谈判终极底牌：一旦谈崩，中国真会被踢出SWIFT？

Core Viewpoint - The potential of the U.S. removing China from the SWIFT system is being discussed, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to various factors. Group 1: Understanding SWIFT - SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, is a global financial messaging system that facilitates cross-border transactions between financial institutions [4] - The system covers over 200 countries and connects more than 11,000 financial institutions, handling 90% of global cross-border payments [6] Group 2: U.S. Influence and Decision-Making - The decision to remove a country from SWIFT requires a majority vote from its 25 board members, with Europe holding 17 of those seats, limiting U.S. unilateral power [7] - Historical precedents for removal from SWIFT include Iran in 2012 and Russia in 2022, both of which were cases where European interests were significantly harmed [7] Group 3: Economic Considerations - The U.S. is currently seeking to negotiate with China to lower tariffs and restore normal trade, indicating a reluctance to fully decouple from China [9] - Removing China from SWIFT could lead to significant price increases in the U.S. due to the absence of Chinese goods [9] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Removal - In the short term, removal from SWIFT would severely impact China's export sector, but China has developed its own cross-border payment system, CIPS, which is gaining traction among international banks [11] - Long-term, being excluded from SWIFT could accelerate the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, as more financial institutions may join CIPS [11] Group 5: Market Reactions - A potential removal from SWIFT would likely lead to a significant drop in the A-share market, similar to past events where tariff adjustments caused substantial declines [13] - Historical data shows that major market drops can present investment opportunities, as seen during the 2018 trade war when the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded after hitting a low [15]