华宝基金李栋梁： 市场波动加剧 债市仍大有可为

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first quarter of 2025 has experienced significant volatility, impacting investors, particularly those holding pure bond funds, and requiring fund managers to enhance their trading skills and market analysis [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is expected to exhibit a slight oscillation due to external disturbances and the need to observe the timing and intensity of future macroeconomic policies [1][2]. - Short-term interest rates have risen rapidly, leading to a general decline in the net value of pure bond funds, with April's external factors adding uncertainty to the market [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are advised to either extend their operational timeframes or utilize strategies such as duration management to capture short-term investment opportunities in a volatile market [2]. - The importance of asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in light of historical parallels to the 1970s dollar crisis, where the decline of dollar credit and advancements in Chinese technology are reshaping global asset allocation [2]. Group 3: Focus on Technology and Innovation - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index reflects not mere speculation but rather a trend in the industry, with significant advancements in technology sectors such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]. - The bond market, including pure bonds and convertible bonds, is seen as having substantial potential, with favorable conditions for interest rate bonds expected to persist into the second quarter [3]. Group 4: Convertible Bonds - The current central price of convertible bonds has gradually increased due to a recovery in market risk appetite, although their defensive attributes have diminished compared to earlier in the year [4].