美关税加大希腊经济下行压力

Core Insights - The Greek National Bank's report highlights the increasing severity of international trade conditions due to U.S. tariff measures, which pose risks not only to bilateral trade but also to the overall export structure and macroeconomic impact of Greece [1][2] Export Structure and Market Dynamics - Greece's export structure is characterized by high uncertainty, with approximately 60% of exports traditionally directed towards Western Europe and the Balkans, which have shown poor economic performance over the past year and a half [1] - Eastern Europe and the Middle East have provided stable support for Greek exports, accounting for about 75% of export growth [1] - The U.S. market, while not a traditional major market for Greece, is projected to increase its share of Greek exports from 4.5% in 2019 to 5.3% by 2024, contributing 7% to export growth during the same period [1] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. government's recent tariff measures are expected to alter the positive outlook for Greek exports, as the U.S. absorbs about 20% of EU exports, indirectly affecting Greece's main trading partners like Germany and Italy [2] - The concentration of Greek exports to the U.S. is primarily in the food sector, with significant exports of high-value products such as olives and olive oil, which have reached €1 billion over the past six years [3] - Tariffs will likely harm Greece's price competitiveness in the North American market, forcing exporters to reduce profit margins, cut export volumes, or seek more expensive alternative markets [3] Economic Challenges - Key issues facing the Greek economy include insufficient investment, low productivity, weak international competitiveness, and a high current account deficit, exacerbated by past debt crises and fiscal austerity [4] - The structural weaknesses of the Greek economy are expected to be magnified by U.S. tariffs, complicating the recovery process [4] - The Greek government aims to avoid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and seeks to align with EU positions, potentially requesting tariff exemptions for certain non-U.S. produced agricultural products [4]