特朗普贸易战下美国石油业困境：成本飙升、油价暴跌，页岩油商陷两难

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. oil industry is facing significant challenges due to the combined effects of trade wars initiated by the Trump administration and a sharp decline in international oil prices, pushing shale oil producers towards a survival crisis [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Trade Policies - Tariffs have increased the cost of drilling operations by $150,000 per well, leading to heightened financial strain on small producers [2]. - Industry consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predicts a 40% year-over-year increase in U.S. oil industry pipe prices by Q4 2025, driven by rising costs from suppliers in China, South Korea, and Brazil [2]. - The trade war is draining vitality from oil equipment hubs, with sales in related businesses, such as Tie Specialties, dropping by 15% year-over-year [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Since January 2025, U.S. crude oil futures have plummeted over 20%, exacerbated by a surge in OPEC supply [1][3]. - The CEO of Patterson-UTI Energy stated that the slogan "drill, baby, drill" is now a joke under current oil prices around $50 [2]. - Diamondback Energy has warned that U.S. onshore oil production is expected to peak and decline this quarter [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Concerns - The oil-producing regions, particularly Texas and Oklahoma, are experiencing significant job losses, with $1.8 billion in exploration budgets cut in the Permian Basin [3]. - Standard & Poor's estimates that if oil prices remain below $50, U.S. daily production could drop by 400,000 barrels [3]. - Small independent producers are voicing their concerns to lawmakers, emphasizing the need for stable economic policies and requesting tariff exemptions on oilfield equipment [3]. Group 4: Government Response and Policy Challenges - The U.S. Energy Secretary acknowledged the need for a healthy balance between consumers and producers, stating that $50 oil prices are unsustainable [3]. - The Trump administration's energy policies are facing internal contradictions, as lower oil prices fulfill anti-inflation promises while causing discontent among voters in oil-rich states due to job losses [3][4].