“五穷六绝”真的存在吗？

Group 1 - The origin of the saying "Five poor, six absolute, seven turn around" comes from the Hong Kong stock market in the 1980s and 1990s, indicating a seasonal pattern in stock performance [1] - The saying has been adopted in the A-share market, but its relevance has been questioned due to changes in market structure and investor behavior [1][4] - Historical data over the past 20 years shows that the average performance of the A-share market in May has been positive, with an average increase of 1.52%, despite 55% of the years experiencing declines [2][4] Group 2 - In June, the A-share market has shown an average decline of 1.41%, with 40% of the years experiencing downturns, attributed to tightening liquidity and institutional rebalancing [2][4] - July typically sees a recovery, with an average increase of 2.26% and 40% of the years showing declines, driven by policy expectations and mid-year earnings reports [2][4] Group 3 - The weakening of the calendar effect is noted, as recent policy changes have accelerated, reducing the impact of traditional seasonal patterns [4][5] - The increase in institutional investor participation has led to a diminished effect of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with a greater focus on long-term investment logic [5] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on fundamental analysis and policy direction rather than solely relying on historical patterns [6][8] - Suggested strategies include diversifying investments across technology growth and defensive dividend assets to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [7][11] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors supported by government policies, such as technology and consumer upgrades, which are expected to benefit from recent financial measures [9][10] - The real estate sector is highlighted as having potential recovery opportunities due to improved credit conditions and consumer spending capabilities [10]