在市场信号明确之前，美联储不会急于调整货币政策立场

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is focused on achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, despite increasing uncertainties and downward risks to the economy [1] - The U.S. economy remains resilient, with the labor market nearing full employment and inflation rates significantly reduced, although still slightly above the 2% target [1] Economic Data Summary - Concerns over U.S. trade policy changes have led to decreased market confidence and increased uncertainty, resulting in an expanded trade deficit [2] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed compared to last year, with overall consumer spending showing only moderate growth despite strong auto sales [2] - Preliminary GDP data for Q1 2025 will be released soon, and external institutions have generally downgraded their growth forecasts for the U.S. economy this year [2] Labor Market Analysis - In the first three months of the year, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by an average of 150,000 jobs per month, indicating a slowdown in job growth compared to the previous year [3] - The unemployment rate remains low and stable, with a job vacancy to unemployed person ratio slightly above 1, close to pre-pandemic levels [3] - Wage growth has slowed but continues to outpace inflation, indicating a balanced labor market that is not a major source of inflationary pressure [3] Inflation Overview - The inflation rate in the U.S. has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak, with the latest data showing a 2.3% increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index over the past 12 months [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% [3] Policy Changes and Economic Impact - The U.S. government is pursuing major policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation, but the full impact of these changes remains uncertain [4] - The announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations, potentially leading to higher inflation and suppressed economic growth [4] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen due to changes in tariff policy, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable around 2% [4] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain long-term inflation expectations and prevent short-term price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [5] - The effectiveness of the new tariff policies in influencing price levels and the Fed's ability to stabilize long-term inflation expectations are critical factors [5] - The Fed is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, which may lead to conflicts between these objectives [5] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve will not rush to adjust its monetary policy stance until the economic situation becomes clearer and more market signals are obtained [6] - Continuous analysis of changing economic data and risk assessments will guide the Fed's policy decisions [6]