低碳氨投资过热需“退烧”

Core Insights - The low-carbon ammonia sector is experiencing significant investment interest, but a report from Fertecon warns that the projected production capacity will far exceed demand, which could hinder project advancements and negatively impact the industry [1][4]. Demand Summary - Fertecon's report indicates that the overall demand for ammonia is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% over the next decade, with low-carbon applications projected to account for 19% of the total ammonia market [3]. - By 2035, low-carbon ammonia demand is anticipated to include 12 million tons per year for marine fuel, 6 million tons per year for power fuel, and 33 million tons per year for energy and industrial hydrogen carriers [3]. - The new application demands are expected to continue growing rapidly, with projections showing that by 2050, they will represent 38% of the overall ammonia market, equating to 146 million tons per year [3]. Supply Summary - Fertecon warns that there are currently 279 announced low-carbon ammonia projects worldwide, and if all proceed as planned without additional projects, global low-carbon ammonia production capacity could reach 223 million tons by 2035 and 254 million tons by 2050 [3]. - This production capacity significantly exceeds the anticipated demand, leading to concerns about market saturation [3][4]. Industry Outlook - The oversupply situation is expected to suppress the market, particularly given the high investment costs associated with low-carbon ammonia, making it difficult for investors to recoup their investments [4]. - This could result in project delays and a potential cycle of losses for low-carbon ammonia companies, which may simultaneously face supply shortages and insufficient investment in the sector [4]. - Fertecon cautions that the likelihood of all announced capacities coming online is low, highlighting the need for vigilance regarding potential investment shortfalls [4].