陶冬：新台币升值揭示出的亚洲资产尴尬

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates soon, despite pressure from the President and Treasury Secretary [2][3] - Economic indicators show a divergence, with soft data indicating weakness in business and consumer confidence, while hard data such as employment and consumption remain resilient, leading to a reassessment of rate cut expectations [2][3] - The potential for a mild recession exists, with inflation possibly rising due to tariff impacts, which could challenge the Fed's policy balance and communication capabilities [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar has led to a rise in other Asian currencies, driven by significant trade surpluses and investment in US assets by Taiwanese insurance companies [4][5] - The reliance on US dollar assets poses risks, particularly if the dollar weakens or US Treasury yields decline, which could lead to significant valuation changes and increased currency risk for Asian insurers [4][5] - The long-term implications of these dynamics could affect capital markets, as Asian countries hold substantial US dollar assets while facing pressures from US trade policies [6]