Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-05-12 03:25Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the stability of phosphate rock prices at high levels, with orderly production across major domestic production areas and a tight supply of high-grade phosphate rock [2][4]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In 2024, China's phosphate rock production is projected to reach 113.53 million tons, an increase of 8.33 million tons or 7.8% year-on-year, with Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Sichuan accounting for 40%, 20%, 25%, and 14% of the total production respectively [2][3]. - The import of phosphate rock in 2024 is expected to be 2.07 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons year-on-year, with an average import price of $93.9 per ton [2][3]. - Domestic production and transportation of phosphate rock are running smoothly, with specific regional conditions noted: Yunnan's rock is primarily for local consumption, Guizhou faces circulation restrictions, Sichuan has stable long-term supply, and Hubei has resumed normal production after a temporary halt [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of May 9, 2024, the average market prices for domestic phosphate rock of 30%, 28%, and 25% grades are 1,020, 947, and 771 RMB per ton respectively [2][3]. - The prices of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) are significantly lower than export prices, indicating a price disparity that may affect domestic market dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The report suggests that the increasing barriers to phosphate mining and stricter environmental regulations will limit the supply growth of phosphate rock, maintaining a high level of market stability [4]. - The profitability of integrated fertilizer companies is expected to improve, with cash dividends likely to increase due to favorable market conditions and price support from raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid [4].