【财经分析】金价早盘“跳水”超2%！避险需求退坡 短期进一步调整风险加大

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with international spot gold falling over $60 and reaching a near one-week low, while the Shanghai gold futures contract also dropped over 2% to a nearly one-month low of 767.50 yuan per gram [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a decrease in market demand for safe-haven assets, as geopolitical tensions and trade issues show signs of easing [3][4] - The geopolitical situation in South Asia has calmed following a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, while negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are being proposed, contributing to reduced market anxiety [3] - Trade tensions have also lessened, with recent agreements between the US and UK and high-level talks between China and the US signaling a potential easing of trade conflicts [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming increasingly influential on the precious metals market, with the likelihood of a rate cut in June dropping below 20% after the Fed maintained its interest rate [6] - The Fed's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to rate cuts, which may lead to a stabilization of the US dollar index, potentially exerting further pressure on gold prices [6] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central banks' continued gold purchases [7] - Analysts suggest that any short-term price adjustments present buying opportunities, as the long-term demand for gold as a safe haven is expected to persist amid economic uncertainties [7]