Core Viewpoint - Domestic rare earth prices are beginning to rise following significant increases in overseas prices, driven by tightening supply and sustained demand from sectors like electric vehicles and energy-efficient air conditioning [2][3][6] Group 1: Price Trends - In the week of May 5-9, 2025, the average price of eight rare earth products increased by 1.69%, with the highest increases seen in dysprosium oxide (3.42%), praseodymium-neodymium alloy (2.91%), and dysprosium-iron alloy (2.24%) [2] - Despite the recent price increases, the domestic rare earth price index showed only a slight decline from 182.40 points on April 3 to 177.00 points on May 9, indicating relative stability [9] - After a period of decline, the domestic rare earth price index began to stabilize and slightly rise from April 27 to May 9, suggesting a potential upward trend [9][10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening of rare earth supply is attributed to export controls implemented by China on certain heavy rare earth products, which include dysprosium, terbium, and others [3][5] - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain strong, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality initiatives, with projected global demand growth of 8%-10% in 2025 [11] - China's rare earth reserves account for approximately 48.40% of global reserves, and its production represents about 68.50% of the global total, indicating a strategic monopoly in the market [4] Group 3: International Market Influences - Recent data indicates that the prices of dysprosium and terbium in Europe have reached historical highs, reflecting a significant surge in international markets [3] - The U.S. has temporarily halted exports of rare earth concentrates to China, which may exacerbate shortages in the international market [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the combination of China's export controls and the U.S. seeking new rare earth sources could lead to a prolonged period of supply shortages globally [6][11]
海外稀土价格持续大涨,国内稀土价格会跟进吗?