中美会谈后股市、美元齐升，避险资产承压 但市场人士警告不确定性仍存

Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to optimism in the market regarding the easing of trade tensions, resulting in significant gains in US stock futures and the US dollar [1][4]. Market Reactions - Dow futures rose by 1.83%, S&P 500 futures increased by 2.40%, and Nasdaq futures surged by 3.45% [2]. - The US dollar index (DXY) climbed by 1.27%, reaching 101.61 [1]. - Safe-haven assets such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc experienced declines, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by approximately 7 basis points to 4.447% [2]. Trade Agreement Details - The US and China reached a series of important agreements during the Geneva talks, with a joint statement issued on May 12, 2025, outlining commitments to modify tariffs [1][3]. - The US will suspend 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff, and will cancel additional tariffs imposed under previous executive orders [1][3]. - China will similarly suspend tariffs on US goods and take necessary measures to halt non-tariff retaliatory actions [3]. Market Analyst Comments - Analysts express cautious optimism about the trade agreement, noting that while the initial agreement is a positive step, uncertainties remain regarding its implementation and potential future complications [4]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with the dollar being viewed as a risk asset, and there is a general sense of relief regarding the potential impacts of tariffs on the economy [4]. - The trade tensions' de-escalation is seen as beneficial for both the US economy and global markets, although the temporary nature of the tariff reductions is acknowledged [4].