贸易战关键时刻，日本突然出手，暗中捅了中国一刀

Core Viewpoint - Japan's recent semiconductor material export restrictions are seen as a strategic move to hinder China's technological advancements, particularly in the context of the ongoing US-China trade war [1][3]. Group 1: Japan's Export Controls - Japan has implemented export controls on 23 semiconductor materials, including photoresists and high-purity hydrogen fluoride, under the guise of "export compliance management" [3]. - The timing of Japan's restrictions is critical, as it coincides with China's anticipated breakthroughs in EUV photoresist technology by April 2025 [1][3]. - The restrictions are designed to create supply chain disruptions, particularly affecting materials with a short shelf life, thereby complicating production processes in China [1][3]. Group 2: Japan's Strategic Intent - Japan aims to regain its lost market share in semiconductor materials, which has declined from 50% in 1988 to 13% currently, and to restore its pricing power in the global market [3]. - The country seeks to leverage its control over semiconductor materials as a geopolitical tool, similar to how the US has used ASML lithography machines to exert pressure [3]. Group 3: Impact on Global Supply Chain - The immediate impact of Japan's sanctions has led to an estimated $800 million in delayed orders for wafer fabs in the Yangtze River Delta and a 15% to 20% increase in global chip prices [3]. - In the long term, these restrictions may catalyze a shift from a "unipolar monopoly" to a "multi-center network," with companies in South Korea and Singapore expanding their material production capacities [3]. Group 4: China's Response and Innovation - China has made significant strides in developing domestic alternatives, achieving a 93.7% yield rate for KrF products and producing high-purity quartz with 99.93% purity [5]. - The Chinese government is investing 344 billion yuan to enhance the domestic production of photoresists, aiming to create a positive cycle of research, production, and commercialization [5]. - Japan's actions have inadvertently drawn attention to its vulnerabilities, as China is now poised to retaliate effectively, potentially leading to significant losses for Japan in the semiconductor market [5][7]. Group 5: Future of the Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is at a pivotal moment, with Japan's attempts to maintain its technological dominance facing challenges from China's innovation and strategic responses [7]. - The ongoing technological blockade may ultimately serve as a catalyst for China's industrial upgrades, demonstrating that such restrictions can backfire [7].