Group 1 - The market sentiment towards global trade relations is improving, leading to a negative correlation between risk assets and the euro's performance [1] - The euro has recently been viewed as a hedge against U.S. policy uncertainty, benefiting from safe-haven inflows during stock market declines [1] - The euro has depreciated significantly, dropping to 1.1079 against the dollar, marking a one-month low, with 1.10 identified as a key support level [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the euro may continue to face pressure, with any further trade progress potentially accelerating its decline [1] - Some institutions remain optimistic about the euro, with forecasts suggesting it could rebound later this year as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, potentially reaching 1.17 by the end of 2025 and 1.24 by the end of 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast, now expecting the euro to rise to 1.20 by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The market has adjusted its expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate cuts, which may support the euro [2][3] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel has expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts, indicating that maintaining rates near current levels is appropriate [2] - Current market bets place the ECB's deposit rate at 1.75%, higher than previous estimates of 1.55% to 1.67% [3]
交易者撤出避险资产 欧元兑美元跌向关键支撑位
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-12 14:25