Will Commodity Prices & Shipment Volumes Hurt Deere's Q2 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company is expected to report second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 15, with strong demand from product launches but challenges from elevated production expenses and low commodity prices impacting performance [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Q2 Performance - Low commodity prices and weak farmer spending have led to lower shipment volumes, negatively affecting the company's fiscal second-quarter performance [2]. - High production expenses, along with increased selling, administrative, and research and development costs, are anticipated to impact the company's margins [3]. - The company is reviewing its cost structure to improve margins, with favorable price realization expected to offset some of the higher material and freight costs [4]. Group 2: Segment Projections for Q2 - The Production & Precision Agriculture segment is projected to generate revenues of $4.61 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 23.9%, with operating profit expected to fall 62.5% to $619 million [5]. - The Small Agriculture & Turf segment's revenues are estimated at $2.78 billion, indicating a 12.6% decline, with operating profit expected to decrease by 15.1% to $485 million [6]. - The Construction & Forestry segment's sales are estimated at $3.29 billion, a 14.4% dip, with operating profit predicted to drop 12% to $588 million [7]. - The Financial Services segment is projected to have revenues of $1.48 billion, a 6.7% increase, with operating profit estimated at $232 million [8]. Group 3: Overall Q2 Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's earnings has decreased by 1.1% to $5.68 per share, implying a 33.4% decline from the previous year, with revenue expectations at $10.6 billion, a 21.7% year-over-year decline [9]. - The earnings surprise history shows that Deere has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.9% [10]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Deere is -0.03%, indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat this time [11]. - Deere holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a hold position [12]. Group 5: Share Price Performance - Deere's shares have increased by 22.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 18.5% [13].