TCEHY Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 13, with earnings estimated at 88 cents per share, reflecting an 18.92% year-over-year growth, and revenues projected at $24.26 billion, indicating an 8.89% year-over-year increase [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Tencent has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.65% [2]. - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect the impact of various ongoing initiatives across gaming, advertising, fintech, and AI infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming sector is expected to show continued momentum from Q4 2024, supported by popular titles such as Honor of Kings and contributions from new releases like DnF Mobile and Delta Force [4]. - All five of Tencent's highest-grossing games recorded year-over-year daily active user increases during the 2025 Spring Festival, indicating sustained user engagement [4]. - Deferred revenue, which grew by a high-teens percentage year-over-year in 2024, is expected to positively impact the top line for the quarter [4]. Group 3: Advertising Services - Marketing services revenues increased by 17% year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by AI enhancements and strong demand from various sectors including e-commerce and healthcare [5]. - Video Accounts Marketing Services revenues grew over 60% year-over-year, while Weixin Search ad revenue more than doubled, suggesting continued advertising growth [5]. Group 4: FinTech Sector - In the fintech segment, commercial payment revenues were flat year-over-year in the previous quarter, with transaction volumes rising but average selling prices under pressure [6]. - This trend is expected to continue in Q1 2025, with improving consumer demand but ongoing supply-side pricing pressures [6]. Group 5: AI Development - The AI-native application Yuanbao saw a 20-fold increase in daily active users from February to March, although revenue impact in Q1 is expected to be limited due to GPU supply constraints [7]. - Tencent significantly increased its investment in AI development in Q4 2024, with a 21% year-over-year rise in R&D expenses and a 421% increase in capital expenditures [8]. - The company plans to further boost R&D spending and capital expenditures in 2025 to enhance AI infrastructure and model development [8].