Should You Buy AGNC Investment as It Slips 11.6% in 3 Months?

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Inc. has experienced an 11.6% decline in share price over the past three months, which is more significant than the industry's decline of 8.5%, reflecting broader challenges in the mortgage market due to rate volatility [1][4]. Price Performance - AGNC's peers, Annaly Capital Management and Arbor Realty Trust, have also seen declines of 5% and 21.4%, respectively, in the same period [1]. - Despite recent price drops, AGNC offers attractive long-term returns with a high dividend yield, which may attract investors [4]. Interest Rate Environment - AGNC's performance is heavily influenced by the interest rate environment, particularly decisions made by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The company's net interest income (NII) fell dramatically from $965 million in 2022 to just $18 million in 2024 due to rising borrowing costs [6]. - A reduction in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 positively impacted AGNC's NII, which rose to $159 million in Q1 2025 from a negative $30 million in the same quarter the previous year [7]. Mortgage Rates and Activity - Recent trends show a slight decline in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.76% as of May 8, 2025, down from 7.09% a year prior [7]. - Lower mortgage rates are expected to boost origination and refinancing activities, which could enhance AGNC's NII and portfolio value [8][21]. Dividend Yield - AGNC's current dividend yield stands at 16.38%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.03%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [10]. - The company has a payout ratio of 81% and is engaged in a stock repurchase plan, authorizing up to $1 billion in buybacks through December 31, 2026 [11]. Agency MBS Outlook - AGNC focuses on agency mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which are backed by U.S. government guarantees, positioning it well in this market segment [12]. - The outlook for agency MBS has improved, although market volatility has increased following recent tariff announcements [13]. - AGNC generated a positive economic return of 2.4% in Q1 2025, supported by its dividend strategy [14]. Valuation - AGNC is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 5.36X, below the industry average of 7.74X, indicating it may be undervalued [22]. - Compared to peers, AGNC's P/E is lower than Annaly Capital Management's 6.66X and Arbor Realty Trust's 8.44X [22]. Investment Consideration - Given the strong fundamentals, high dividend yield, and potential for growth in a declining rate environment, AGNC stock may be a worthwhile addition to investment portfolios [24].