智通财经网·2025-05-12 23:07Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks will continue to narrow in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a consensus in the industry regarding the decline in asset-side yields. However, improvements in liability-side costs are expected to support a gradual stabilization of the NIM decline, with an overall better performance anticipated in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][4]. Asset Side Analysis - The yield on interest-earning assets for 42 listed banks in 2024 is projected to be 3.37%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28 basis points. Specifically, the loan yield is expected to be 3.72% (down 40 basis points), while investment asset yields are at 3.10% (down 18 basis points) [2]. - The structure of interest-earning assets shows that investment assets account for 34.34% of total interest-earning assets (up 0.65 percentage points), while loans make up 55.55% (up 0.02 percentage points). The increase in the proportion of investment and loan assets has a limited positive effect on overall NIM [2]. Liability Side Analysis - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities for the same group of banks is expected to be 1.98% in 2024, down 12 basis points year-on-year. The deposit cost is projected at 1.80% (down 15 basis points) [3]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities indicates that deposits account for 72.49% (up 0.24 percentage points), with a continuing trend towards the regularization of deposits. The proportion of interbank liabilities is 11.58% (down 0.35 percentage points) [3]. Future Outlook - For the full year of 2025, the NIM decline is expected to stabilize gradually, with an overall performance better than in 2024. The report highlights that the pressure from the three LPR cuts in 2024 will be concentrated in Q1 2025, alongside a batch reduction in existing mortgage rates [4]. - The current monetary and fiscal policies are expected to work in tandem, with the central bank's recent announcements indicating a clear intention to support NIM through measures such as rate cuts and self-discipline mechanisms for deposit rates [4]. Investment Recommendations - GF Securities recommends focusing on return on equity (ROE) as a benchmark for expected returns in the banking sector, with specific emphasis on regional economic alpha and low investment income ratios as sources of sustained excess returns. The banks highlighted for investment include China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qingdao Bank [1].