【财经分析】多因素扰动促债市震荡 市场“短空长多”观点仍占上风

Core Viewpoint - The recent "double reduction" in interest rates has led to a stable performance in the bond market, with discussions focusing on whether there is still room for further rate cuts in the second quarter [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 12, the interbank bond market saw an overall rise in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the 2-year yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.44%, and the 10-year yield jumping by 5 basis points to 1.69% [2]. - Following the "double reduction," long-term bond yields have shown weak performance, indicating challenges in the downward pricing logic for long-term bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - There is a prevailing optimistic sentiment among institutions regarding the bond market, with expectations that if short-term rates can maintain low volatility, a "bull market" in bonds may continue, potentially pushing the 10-year government bond yield down to a range of 1.5% to 1.6% [4][5]. - The supply-demand relationship in the bond market is expected to improve in the second quarter, as the net increase in interest rate bonds will decrease, alleviating supply pressure [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The easing of monetary policy through rate cuts and potential resumption of government bond purchases is anticipated to support the bond market, especially in light of economic pressures from trade disputes [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment necessitates a focus on left-side opportunities, where investors can identify value during market volatility [6][7].