不锈钢：宏观改善盘面震荡偏强 基本面供需矛盾强化

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight price increase, with improved market confidence and active trading due to low inventory levels among some traders [2] - Nickel ore prices remain relatively firm, with tight supply conditions influenced by the rainy season, while nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure [2][1] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease slightly month-on-month but increase year-on-year, indicating a mixed production outlook [1] Raw Materials - Philippine mines have sold resources for June at 1.4% FOB43, while Indonesian nickel ore prices have seen an increase in domestic trade premiums [1] - The Indonesian government has implemented a new tax policy, increasing the nickel product royalty by 1.5% [1] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with the latest mainstream steel mills quoting 940 yuan per nickel (including tax) [1] Supply and Production - According to Mysteel, 43 domestic stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.4899 million tons of crude steel in May, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is projected at 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts recently [1] - As of May 9, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 560,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,700 tons [1] - Stainless steel futures inventory as of May 12 was 160,244 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,048 tons [1]