Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index has increased by 3.97 percentage points in April, reaching 100.21, driven by the recovery of terminal demand and increased inventory replenishment [2][9][10] - The sub-indices for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing rose by 7.21 and 5.09 percentage points respectively, indicating a significant recovery in these sectors [2][6] - However, the oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell by 1.06 percentage points due to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which did not translate into upstream recovery [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and chemical industry is monitored through a composite index that includes four sub-indices: oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing, and rubber and plastic products manufacturing [1] - The index is based on microeconomic data such as capacity utilization, product profitability, and finished goods inventory levels, sourced from regular surveys of over a thousand enterprises [1] Market Challenges - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have posed challenges to the petrochemical industry, impacting the import and export of certain petrochemical products [3][12][14] - The international oil price has faced downward pressure due to the US tariff policies and unexpected production increases from OPEC+, leading to a significant decline in April [4][15] Future Outlook - The holiday economy is expected to continue supporting terminal demand, which may lead to further increases in the prosperity index in May [7][16] - However, the low international oil prices are likely to exert pressure on the production and operational performance of petrochemical enterprises, potentially hindering the recovery of the prosperity index [16]
石油和化工行业：4月终端需求恢复 景气指数回升
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-05-13 02:35