通胀韧性再现：关税冲击初现端倪 美国4月CPI预期反弹

Core Viewpoint - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to accelerate in April, influenced by tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, following a surprising decrease in the previous month [1][4] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.3% in April compared to March, reversing the previous month's decline [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to increase at a similar rate [1] - Economists predict that the initial impact of punitive tariffs on goods from China and other countries will be reflected in the upcoming report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][4] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Prices - Economists suggest that categories heavily reliant on Chinese imports, such as toys, shoes, and clothing, may experience mild inflation [4] - Retailers are finding it challenging to pass on price increases without significantly reducing demand, although they will attempt to do so [4] - The net impact of tariffs may not be as inflationary as commonly believed if retailers manage to absorb some costs [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Economists are assessing a recent agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower tariffs, which could lead to a "catch-up period" where retailers rush to replenish inventory, potentially raising consumer prices [4] - Predictions indicate that inflation for goods excluding food and energy may rise by 0.1% in April, following a decline in the previous month [4] - Some economists expect that the effects of additional tariffs will be limited, as many goods already in transit were exempt from the new tariffs [4][5] Group 4: Service Sector and Housing - Certain service categories, such as airfares and car rentals, have seen price declines for two consecutive months, indicating weak demand in the travel sector [6] - The housing category, which includes rent, is expected to cool down after a significant increase in March [8] - There are doubts about whether tariffs will prevent service sector inflation from gradually declining, which could allow the Federal Reserve to ease policies later in the year [8]