智通财经网·2025-05-13 03:24Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities emphasizes the gradual clearing of the industry and reaffirms the investment value in the liquor sector, noting that the industry is currently in a challenging period with signs of adjustment among second and third-tier companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The revenue, net profit, and cash collection for the liquor industry in Q4 and Q1 were 255.6 billion, 98.3 billion, and 275.1 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 1.5%, 0.2%, and 4.0% [1] - For the entire year of 2024, the liquor industry's revenue, net profit, and cash collection are projected to be 442.2 billion, 166.6 billion, and 478 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 7.4%, and 5.3% [1] - The Q4 performance showed revenue, net profit, and cash collection of 102.2 billion, 34.9 billion, and 122.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 1.2%, -3.4%, and -7.4% respectively, indicating a continued adjustment phase for many companies [1] Group 2: Company Resilience and Cash Flow - Leading companies exhibit stronger resilience, with high-end liquor maintaining stability, such as Moutai showing double-digit growth and Wuliangye managing inventory effectively [2] - The overall contract liabilities for the liquor sector in Q1 2025 were 43.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% but a decrease of 10.4 billion yuan compared to Q4, indicating a release of channel leverage risk [2] - Cash flow performance is slightly better than revenue, as companies manage to maintain stable prepayments despite the challenges [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Pressures - The overall gross margin is under pressure, with high-end liquor experiencing some decline and regional liquor facing structural upgrades [3] - Companies are increasing sales expenses to cope with competition, with Wuliangye and Shui Jing Fang benefiting from reduced sales expenses leading to improved profitability [3] - The dealer structure is diversifying, with strong brands like Fenjiu and Gujing seeing rapid growth in their dealer networks [3]