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浙商证券:对等关税暂缓果链负面压力消弭 板块估值有望修复
智通财经网·2025-05-13 05:54

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the supply chain, particularly for Apple-related products, enhancing growth potential in the second quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the tariff from 125% to 34%, with 24% of the tariff suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff on non-US origin products [2][3]. - The joint statement from the trade talks indicates that the short-term impact of the tariffs on the supply chain is largely mitigated, allowing for a more favorable environment for growth [3]. Group 2: Impact on Apple Products - Apple has announced significant price reductions for the iPhone 16 series, with the iPhone 16 Pro Max dropping by $160 and the iPhone 16 Pro by $176, aimed at boosting sales in the second quarter [2][4]. - The price cuts are expected to enhance shipment volumes, with a reported 6% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments during Q2, driven by promotional activities on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com [4]. Group 3: Future Growth and Innovations - The upcoming launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [4][5]. - The market sentiment around emerging technologies such as humanoid robots and AI glasses is expected to positively influence the valuation of core suppliers in the Apple supply chain [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks in the Apple supply chain include Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), and Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) [7].