未名宏观|2025年4月进、出口点评——特朗普高关税影响，中美贸易单月下降

Core Viewpoint - The external environment remains complex and volatile, leading to fluctuations in foreign trade growth, with a notable impact from high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][6]. Export Summary - In April 2025, China's total exports reached $315.69 billion, marking an 8.1% year-on-year increase, although this represents a decline of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][3]. - The growth rate of exports to the United States significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries saw a substantial increase [3][5]. - Traditional exports such as clothing, footwear, and bags continued to decline, whereas exports of electromechanical products and high-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, experienced robust growth [1][7]. Import Summary - In April 2025, China's total imports amounted to $219.51 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2%, although the rate of decline narrowed by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][6]. - The demand for traditional bulk commodities decreased due to ongoing economic restructuring, and the import growth rate remained low despite some signs of recovery [2][8]. - Imports from the United States, EU, and ASEAN saw significant declines, while imports from Latin America increased notably [2][8]. Future Outlook - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate in 2025 due to increased uncertainty from political changes in major Western trading partners and the aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration [9]. - The RCEP agreement is anticipated to provide support for export growth through an optimized export structure [9]. - Import growth is projected to gradually improve as domestic economic stabilization policies take effect, although challenges remain due to the ongoing bottoming out of the real estate market and high global trade barriers [9].