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招商证券:25Q1猪价淡季不淡 上市猪企实现扭亏
智通财经网·2025-05-13 06:33

Industry Overview - In 2024, the growth of sow production capacity is expected to be slow, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025, which may result in better-than-expected pig prices [1] - The average national pig price in Q1 2025 is reported at 15.0 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.6% [1] - The total pig output from listed companies in Q1 2025 reached 47.59 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 26% and accounting for 24% of the national output [1] Company Performance - Major listed pig companies turned profitable in Q1 2025, primarily due to favorable pig prices, declining feed costs, and improved production efficiency [2] - The total profit for 16 listed pig companies in Q1 2025 was 8.2 billion CNY, with operating cash flow reaching 13.1 billion CNY, leading to a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio by 0.2 percentage points to 60% [2] - The construction projects and capital expenditures of major listed pig companies continued to decline, with year-on-year decreases of 41% and 25%, respectively, due to cautious expectations regarding future pig prices [2] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on high-quality pig companies with significant cost advantages and strong performance delivery capabilities, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group and Dongrui Co., Ltd. [1]