Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to see steady growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected figures of 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 2.44, 2.81, and 3.11 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.0, 5.2, and 4.7 times [1] - In Q1 2025, Shandong Hongqiao achieved operating revenue of 40.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit of 6.357 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.28% [1] Group 2 - The significant improvement in profitability for electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 has driven a substantial increase in net profit for Shandong Hongqiao, with a gross margin of 24.97%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average profit for electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 2,376 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 160 yuan per ton year-on-year and 2,276 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter [2] - The report indicates that the rapid decline in alumina prices may be nearing an end, with the average profit for alumina in Q1 2025 being 498 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan year-on-year and 1,662 yuan quarter-on-quarter [3] Group 3 - China Hongqiao is enhancing its integrated industrial chain layout, with stable profit expectations in the alumina segment due to the slowing decline in alumina prices [3] - The company is expanding its alumina supply through joint ventures in Guinea and has established stable supply channels in Indonesia and Australia, ensuring cost advantages [3] - The ongoing capacity replacement in Shandong Hongqiao and the continuous improvement of the aluminum industry chain in Yunnan are notable, with the company exiting certain production lines while developing new capacities [4]
国联民生：维持中国宏桥(01378)“买入”评级 Q1电解铝盈利显著改善 云南产能置换持续推进