Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the easing of US-China trade tensions has led traders to retract their bets on aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with current market pricing suggesting only three rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1][4] - Previously, traders anticipated that if demand for Australian products from China declined or a global economic recession occurred, the RBA would be forced to implement significant rate cuts [4] - The reduction in bets on RBA rate cuts reflects the cautious approach taken by RBA Governor Michele Bullock in response to the uncertainty created by the Trump administration's tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - Economists expect that the upcoming data will show Australia's unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% for April, and a recent report indicated that core inflation has fallen within the RBA's target range for the first time in over three years [4] - The expansionary fiscal policy in Australia is another reason investors believe the RBA's easing cycle may be shallow, with expectations of a more expansionary stance under a Labor-majority government [4] - Some economists still believe that the uncertainty stemming from Trump’s policies may lead the RBA to consider deeper rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting a potential reduction of the cash rate to 3.1% by the end of the year [5]
中美贸易紧张局势降温 交易员削减对澳洲联储降息押注
智通财经网·2025-05-13 06:50