黄金时间·观点：关税风险暂时缓和，黄金短期仍有下行预期

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a significant decline, dropping over 2.6% on Monday and approximately 7.5% from the historical high of $3500 per ounce reached on April 22 [1] - Recent developments in trade talks and a decrease in geopolitical risks are the main short-term bearish factors for the gold market, including the positive outcomes from the US-Iran negotiations and the ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan [1] - The US and UK have reached a new trade agreement, and substantial progress was made in the US-China high-level trade talks, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs by both sides, which has reduced pessimistic expectations regarding an economic recession triggered by the trade war [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, issues related to US dollar credibility and diversified central bank reserves will continue to support gold prices, driven by ongoing challenges to the authority of the US dollar due to the government debt ceiling crisis [2] - The trend of de-dollarization is leading to sustained demand for gold purchases by global central banks, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting a cumulative net purchase of 59 tons of gold by central banks by the first quarter of 2025, which will support gold prices [2]