Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in corn prices in Heilongjiang is attributed to supply-demand mismatches and rising bullish sentiment, reflecting a broader trend in the national corn market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average corn price in China reached 2.42 yuan per kilogram in the first week of May, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous week, although down 4.3% year-on-year [2]. - In Heilongjiang, prices for corn have risen significantly post "May Day" holiday, with trade prices reported between 2,130 to 2,160 yuan per ton [2][3]. - The price increase is supported by a reduction in inventory levels among deep processing enterprises, with average inventory days dropping to 35 days and daily delivery shortages expanding to 25% to 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition for grain sources has intensified, leading to expectations of continued price increases [1][3]. - The transfer of grain sources into trade inventory has created a "reservoir effect" at ports, further bolstering bullish market expectations [3][6]. - Despite the strong price momentum, the purchasing willingness of feed enterprises remains weak, and competition from alternative products may limit further price increases [4][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The overall supply of corn in China remains ample, with an expected planting area increase of 132,000 hectares for the 2025/26 season, leading to a projected total production of 29,616 million tons [5]. - The demand for corn is expected to stabilize, with feed consumption remaining steady and industrial consumption likely to hold [5]. - The narrowing price gap between corn and wheat, along with the anticipated harvest of wheat, may enhance wheat's competitive advantage, potentially impacting corn prices in the medium to long term [6].
【财经分析】“五一”后产地玉米现货价格强势上涨 未来行情仍待观察
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-13 08:31