创金合信基金魏凤春：新的战略相持期 资产配置的策略

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has exceeded many investors' expectations, leading to a shift in market sentiment and asset allocation strategies [2][7]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The key driver of global asset performance over the past week (May 6-13) was the anticipation surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with a notable increase in investor risk appetite following the agreement [1]. - Specific asset movements included a decline in gold prices, a rise in oil prices, and a broad rebound in stock markets, particularly in indices such as the MOEX, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's April consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline, while the producer price index dropped by 2.7%, indicating weak domestic demand [4]. - In contrast, U.S. inflation expectations remain high, with a one-year consumer inflation expectation of 3.6% and significant increases in various commodity prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Details - The recent trade agreement includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China lowering tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% [7]. - The agreement is seen as a temporary ceasefire, with future negotiations expected to focus more on the interests of businesses rather than consumers [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios and Strategies - Future negotiations will likely involve complex considerations, including U.S. debt pressures, resource management, and the commercialization of technology, which are critical for maintaining economic growth [9]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious, as the trade war has not fully ended, and strategies should include a mix of low-volatility assets and selective growth opportunities [10]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The core strength of the Chinese capital market is rooted in its economic fundamentals, with recent measures aimed at stabilizing the market expected to evolve into more sustainable strategies [11]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan is linked to the reduced risks from the trade agreement, suggesting a stable outlook for the currency in the near term [12].