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华鑫证券:给予宇新股份买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Yuxin Co., Ltd. has achieved revenue growth driven by production and sales increases, while facing challenges from price declines and market conditions, leading to a recommendation of a "buy" rating for the company [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yuxin Co., Ltd. reported total operating revenue of 7.701 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.51%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 307 million, a decrease of 32.34% [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.010 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.43%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 45 million, down 37.73% year-on-year and down 25.95% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 2: Operational Insights - The revenue growth was primarily driven by capacity expansion and increased sales, with utilization rates for key products such as isooctane, MTBE, and succinic anhydride exceeding 100%, indicating effective capacity management [3]. - The company has proactively adjusted its sales strategy in response to market conditions, resulting in a 5.89% increase in sales volume [3]. - Despite the growth in revenue, the chemical industry gross margin decreased by 3.42 percentage points, indicating a narrowing profit margin due to price declines in key products [3]. Group 3: Cash Flow and Cost Management - Operating cash flow decreased to 154 million, a decline of 77.14% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced net profit [4]. - The company has improved cost control, with selling, administrative, financial, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 0.10, 0.26, 0.03, and 0.49 percentage points respectively [4]. Group 4: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The domestic BDO industry faces structural oversupply, with existing capacity at 4.801 million tons per year and over 4 million tons of new capacity planned for the next five years, leading to supply-side pressures [5]. - Yuxin Co., Ltd. is focusing on upgrading its succinic anhydride value chain and developing high-value-added products to mitigate traditional market declines [5]. - The company has obtained 65 patents and is enhancing its production flexibility to adapt to market changes, including projects in biodegradable plastics and light hydrocarbon utilization [5]. Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 466 million, 537 million, and 656 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.8, 7.7, and 6.3 times [6].