Core Insights - The logistics service platform Yunqina reported that all routes to the U.S. were nearing full capacity by the end of May, indicating a surge in shipments expected in the latter half of May [1] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with similar measures [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a "bottleneck effect" due to the rapid increase in shipping demand following the tariff negotiations, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in shipping schedules and port congestion [3] Shipping Market Dynamics - Since April, U.S. tariffs have led to a 30%-40% decrease in shipments from China to the U.S., with cargo being redirected to European and Latin American routes [3] - The cancellation rate of voyages on the trans-Pacific route increased from 9% to 24% between the 14th and 18th weeks of the year, indicating a significant reduction in shipping capacity [3] - As of May 12, there were reports of full bookings on U.S. routes, with some shipping companies already reaching full capacity [4] Capacity and Pricing Outlook - Shipping companies have been adjusting their capacity in response to fluctuating demand, with some carriers not canceling any voyages in May, indicating a strategic approach to manage capacity [5] - The anticipated surge in shipping demand may not be fully met by available capacity, as some vessels remain temporarily idle and not all capacity has been redirected to other routes [5] - Analysts predict that while there will be a rush to ship goods, the actual scale of this surge may be lower than expected, referencing past trends where tariff impacts limited the effectiveness of shipping surges [6] Future Market Projections - The recovery of shipping capacity is expected to lag behind the increase in shipping volumes, with a projected one-month timeframe for capacity restoration [6] - The shipping rates for 40-foot containers to the U.S. are expected to rise by $1,000 in the latter half of May, driven by increased demand and limited supply [6] - The situation at U.S. ports remains stable, with expectations of manageable congestion unless labor disputes arise, suggesting a controlled environment for shipping operations [6]