Retail ETFs in Focus Ahead of Big-Box Q1 Earnings

Core Insights - The retail sector is currently under scrutiny as major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target prepare to report their earnings [1] Earnings Performance - 20 out of 33 retailers in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings, showing a 20.2% increase in earnings compared to the same period last year, with revenues up by 6.9%. 55% of these companies exceeded EPS estimates, while 45% surpassed revenue estimates. The overall retail sector is projected to achieve earnings growth of 20.1% and revenue growth of 7% [2] ETF Performance - Traditional retail ETFs are gaining attention, with SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) increasing by approximately 13.3% and 9.8% respectively over the past month [3] Individual Retailer Insights - Walmart has an Earnings ESP of -1.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a slight negative earnings estimate revision. The company has an average earnings surprise of 7.36% over the last four quarters and is set to report on May 15 [5] - Home Depot has an Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 2.56%, and it will report on May 20 [6] - Lowe's has an Earnings ESP of -0.16% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise is 3.89%, and it is scheduled to report on May 21 [7] - Target has an Earnings ESP of -2.45% and a Zacks Rank of 4, with a negative earnings estimate revision. The average earnings surprise is 1.48%, and it will report on May 21 [8] - Nordstrom has an Earnings ESP of -25.37% and a Zacks Rank of 2, with no revisions in earnings estimates. The average earnings surprise is -26.1%, and it is set to report on May 29 [9] - Kohl's has an Earnings ESP of +35.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a positive earnings estimate revision. The average earnings surprise is -166.43%, and it will report on May 29 [10] ETF Details - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, holding 76 diversified stocks with no single stock exceeding 2% of the total. It has an asset under management (AUM) of $437.7 million and an average trading volume of 7 million shares [11][12] - VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) tracks the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, focusing on the 26 largest retail firms. It has an AUM of $239.6 million and trades an average of 6,000 shares daily [13][14]