供应端压力增加原油价格反弹空间料有限

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].