中信证券：关税新政对跨境平台及卖家均带来较大利好

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the cross-border small package tariff exemption by the U.S. and the subsequent adjustment of tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to significantly impact the industry ecosystem, leading to a shift towards semi-managed and third-party (3P) models [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - On May 2, the U.S. officially canceled the cross-border small package tariff exemption, and on May 12, a joint statement was released indicating that within 90 days, the U.S. will reduce the 125% tariff imposed on China since April 2 to 10% [1] - The total tariff rate imposed since 2025 will decrease from 145% to 30% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The rapid changes in tariff policies are driving the evolution of the industry ecosystem, with the cessation of the small package tax exemption potentially accelerating the concentration towards semi-managed and 3P models [1] - The suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" significantly alleviates the short-term operational pressure on cross-border sellers who previously relied on general import models [1] Group 3: Long-term Strategies - In the context of ongoing U.S.-China tensions, tariff policy risks remain, prompting cross-border sellers to adopt three main strategies: price transmission, capacity transfer, and diversified layouts [1] - The unexpected strength of the cancellation of reciprocal tariffs is seen as a substantial benefit for both cross-border platforms and sellers [1]