北港库存创新高，锚地船舶数量骤降 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to high supply, elevated inventory levels at northern ports, and weak demand, despite some support expected during the summer peak season [2][3]. Coal Market Analysis - Northern port inventories have reached record highs, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The supply in coal-producing regions remains high, and the demand is weak, particularly as southern regions enter the rainy season, which will increase hydropower generation [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are stable but slightly decreasing, with a slight recovery in coking coal mine inventories. Downstream coking coal inventories remain at low to medium levels, which supports short-term coal prices [2][3]. Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, but the coal sector underperformed compared to the broader index. On May 7, a press conference by the State Council introduced a package of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which helped the Shanghai Composite Index recover to above 3300 points [2][3]. - The average trading volume in the market was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 100 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity compared to the previous week [2][3]. Future Outlook - For thermal coal, prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high supply and low demand, but there may be upward support as the market approaches the summer peak season for coal stockpiling [3]. - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and high dividends [3].