Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that SUTENG JUCHUANG (02498) is expected to experience significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 2.62 billion, 3.66 billion, and 4.70 billion yuan respectively, while the net profit is forecasted to be -238 million, 106 million, and 320 million yuan respectively. The company is currently not profitable, leading to a PS valuation method being employed for its assessment [1]. Group 1 - The company is rapidly leading the global LiDAR industry, focusing on providing quality solutions in the field of embodied intelligence. The sales of LiDAR products have seen a non-linear high growth, confirming the explosive demand from automotive companies for LiDAR configurations under the trend of increasing intelligence [2]. - In 2024, the total sales of LiDAR products are expected to reach approximately 544,000 units, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 109.6%. The sales of LiDAR products for ADAS applications are projected to be around 520,000 units. The company is expected to maintain a leading market share of 26% in 2024, ranking first globally [2]. - The product matrix of the company is comprehensive, covering various technical paths including mechanical, semi-solid, and solid-state LiDAR, with performance ranging from short to ultra-long distances and low to high beam configurations. This allows the company to meet a wide range of demands across different price segments [2]. Group 2 - The first driving force is the end-to-end vehicle integration and equalization of intelligent driving. The previous debate over LiDAR configurations in vehicles has been influenced by Tesla's insistence on a pure vision and neural network approach. With advancements in computing power and the maturity of end-to-end algorithms, the integration of multi-sensor fusion with pure vision is becoming more feasible [3]. - The LiDAR industry is expected to enter the "thousand-yuan machine era" by 2025, with prices dropping to the range of 25,000 to 30,000 yuan. This price reduction is anticipated to significantly increase the configuration rate of LiDAR as an "invisible safety airbag" for autonomous driving [3]. - The global market for LiDAR in passenger vehicles is estimated to reach approximately 7 billion yuan by 2025, with the Chinese market accounting for about 6.3 billion yuan. The overseas market is expected to gradually open up and grow rapidly, representing an important direction for LiDAR's incremental growth [3]. Group 3 - The second driving force is the strategic positioning of the robotics technology platform. The company focuses on the development of incremental components such as robotic vision and dexterous hands, launching solutions based on hand-eye coordination for upper body operations and lower body mobility [4]. - The year 2025 is viewed as the year of mass production for humanoid robots, with companies like Tesla aiming to produce 5,000 units of Optimus this year, and domestic companies like Zhiyuan Robotics achieving deliveries in the thousands [4]. - In the niche market of robotic lawn mowers, the demand for LiDAR products is projected to exceed 400,000 units by 2025 and is expected to surpass 900,000 units by 2028 [4].
申万宏源:首予速腾聚创(02498)“增持”评级 激光雷达配置需求进入爆发期