美股涨回正区间美债却继续下跌，为何关税政策缓和也救不了美债

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tariff policies has led to a divergence in the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds, with stocks recovering while bond yields continue to rise, indicating ongoing pressure on the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 0.1%, recovering from a previous decline of 17% due to tariff impacts [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.484%, higher than the pre-tariff announcement average of 4.156% and close to the peak level of 4.492% in April [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the bond market remains under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [4]. - The recent auction of 10-year Treasuries showed signs of stability, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, indicating healthy demand despite previous volatility [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressures - The U.S. Treasury is facing fiscal pressures, with warnings that extraordinary measures to maintain the debt ceiling may run out by August, potentially leading to a funding shortfall [6][7]. - The current statutory debt ceiling stands at $36.1 trillion, and analysts predict a funding shortfall could occur between August and October [7]. Group 4: Tariff and Inflation Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to affect investor confidence regarding inflation and interest rate forecasts, leading to higher yield demands [8]. - The 10-year Treasury's term premium is currently at 0.69%, close to the peak of 0.84% in April, reflecting ongoing risk perceptions [8]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to concerns about tariffs potentially driving inflation higher [9][10]. - Some analysts have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now predicting that the Fed may not begin cutting rates until December, rather than July [10].