智通财经网·2025-05-14 06:36Core Viewpoint - The USDA report for the 2025/26 global agricultural supply and demand forecasts indicates a potential decline in global corn production, while an increase in coarse grains, soybeans, and wheat production is expected. This leads to a tighter global corn supply and a more relaxed supply-demand balance for wheat and soybeans, suggesting a positive outlook for international corn prices [1]. Group 1: Corn - The USDA report forecasts a record global corn production of 1.265 billion tons for 2025/26, a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%, with significant increases expected from the US, Ukraine, and Argentina [1]. - Argentina's corn production is projected to rise by 3 million tons to 53 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, due to expanded planting area [2]. - Global corn demand is expected to reach a record 1.274 billion tons, resulting in a supply gap of approximately 9.45 million tons, although this gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Wheat - Global wheat production is anticipated to reach a record 808 million tons for 2025/26, an increase of about 1.1% year-on-year, with major production increases in the EU, India, and China [3]. - The total global wheat consumption is projected to expand to 808 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.5%, leading to a supply surplus of about 520,000 tons [3]. - The global wheat export volume is expected to rise to 213 million tons, an increase of approximately 6.87 million tons from the previous year, with the EU expected to see the largest increase among major exporters [3]. Group 3: Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted to grow to 427 million tons for 2025/26, a year-on-year increase of about 1.4%, primarily driven by increased production in Brazil and Paraguay [4]. - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record 175 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from the previous year, while Argentina's production is projected to decrease by 500,000 tons [4]. - The global soybean export volume is anticipated to increase by 4% to 188 million tons, with significant contributions from South American countries [5].