淡水泉4月月度观点：美国政府关税政策引发全球市场动荡

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policy has caused global market turmoil, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing signs of a rebound after initial declines, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7% and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.33% [1] - The core factor affecting the market in April was the U.S. tariff policy, particularly aimed at China, with President Trump attempting to achieve multiple goals through comprehensive tariff increases, but facing significant uncertainty due to conflicting objectives [1] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a stalemate, with both sides likely to seek negotiation opportunities in the near future, especially given the upcoming inflation pressures and debt maturities in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - China's robust industrial system and efficient supply chain provide cost advantages and a strong defense against decoupling risks, as highlighted in the recent political bureau meeting emphasizing long-term strategies and economic stability measures [2] - In response to tariff impacts, the market has shown a preference for domestic demand and self-sufficient assets, with defensive sectors like utilities and agriculture performing better than the broader market [2] - Companies with exposure to U.S. or global markets have experienced indiscriminate declines but have largely recovered, indicating a market differentiation between emotional impacts and fundamental realities [2] Group 3 - There are significant investment opportunities in the technology sector, particularly for quality leaders with reasonable valuations that are either irreplaceable in global supply chains or strong in self-sufficiency [3] - Companies closely related to materials and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from developments in AI applications and automotive intelligence over the next two to three years, provided that extreme confrontations in U.S.-China tariffs do not occur [3] - The domestic demand-driven companies, especially in the computing power and equipment supply sectors, are likely to be less affected by the economic environment and may even benefit from external tariff pressures [3]