日本政坛“黑金丑闻”再现，首相石破茂能否带领自民党“突围”7月改选？

Core Viewpoint - The recent bribery scandal involving Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has raised concerns about his leadership and the upcoming July Senate elections, with his approval ratings declining significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Bribery Scandal - Shigeru Ishiba has been accused of accepting illegal political donations totaling 30 million yen from a Tokyo real estate company over the past decade, which were provided in the form of banquet tickets and election campaign funds [1][3]. - The scandal has prompted a collective response from opposition parties, with calls for Ishiba's resignation becoming more pronounced [3]. - The political funding report, which is crucial for transparency in Japanese politics, has not included these donations, further eroding public trust [3][4]. Group 2: Political Context - The upcoming Senate elections on July 3 will see 315 candidates vying for 248 seats, with Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party needing at least 125 seats to maintain a majority [6]. - The previous "black money scandal" has already weakened the ruling coalition's position, leading to significant losses in the October 2024 House of Representatives elections [6]. - Ishiba's government is currently perceived as a minority government, facing challenges in regaining public trust and addressing the fallout from past scandals [6][4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Ishiba's administration is also grappling with the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese industries, particularly the automotive sector, with limited progress in negotiations [7]. - Japan's GDP for the first quarter is expected to show signs of contraction, indicating economic weakness prior to the full impact of U.S. tariffs [7].