【新华解读】4月社融规模新增近1.2万亿元 还原置换影响信贷增速或仍超8%

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in social financing and M2 growth in April, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy environment, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals despite short-term uncertainties in effective credit demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - In April, the new social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with the total social financing stock reaching 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2][3]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the end of the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt and Credit Support - The acceleration of government bond issuance has been a major driver of social financing, with net financing from government bonds exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, significantly higher than the previous year [3][4]. - The issuance of corporate bonds has also increased, with the total corporate bond balance reaching 32.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][4]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Structure - In April, the increase in RMB loans was approximately 280 billion yuan, with the total RMB loan balance reaching 265.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, which remains significantly above nominal economic growth [3][4]. - The growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector was 11.9% and 8.5% respectively, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [4]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Future Outlook - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year [4]. - Market analysts expect that despite short-term uncertainties in effective credit demand, the implementation of a series of financial policies will positively impact the recovery of effective demand in the real economy, leading to stable growth in financial totals in the near future [4][6].