欧佩克月报：维持今年石油需求增长预测不变，4月谨慎启动增产

Group 1 - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, projecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, which is approximately 60% higher than JPMorgan's expectations [1] - In April, OPEC+ cautiously began to increase oil production, with eight member countries collectively increasing output by only 25,000 barrels per day, significantly below the planned 138,000 barrels per day [1] - Saudi Arabia has emphasized compliance with production quotas, expressing disappointment over member countries' cheating, which has led to a decision to accelerate supply growth in May and June to three times the originally planned amount [1] Group 2 - The increase in OPEC production coincides with a significant drop in oil prices due to tariffs imposed by Trump, with Brent crude futures falling below $60 per barrel before recovering to around $66 [2] - Iraq's average daily production in April was 3.964 million barrels, partially fulfilling its commitment to compensate for previous quota violations, while Kazakhstan's production decreased by 41,000 barrels to 1.823 million barrels, still exceeding its quota by approximately 400,000 barrels [2] - OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 to an increase of about 800,000 barrels per day, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in supply growth due to falling oil prices [3]