Core Insights - China's wind power generation capacity has rapidly expanded, with the cumulative installed capacity ranking first globally for 15 consecutive years. However, the industry is approaching a large-scale retirement phase for wind turbines, with projections indicating that by 2030, annual retirements will exceed 10 GW, generating significant solid waste, particularly non-degradable composite material blades [1][2][6]. Wind Power Industry Growth - As of Q1 2025, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 1.482 billion kW, surpassing thermal power for the first time, with wind power at 536 million kW and solar power at 946 million kW [2]. - The average annual increase in wind power installation over the past 15 years has been over 30 million kW [5]. Retirement Phase of Wind Turbines - The typical design lifespan of wind turbines is around 20 years, but many are retiring early, around 15 years, due to technological limitations and parts shortages. By the end of 2024, over 33 GW of wind turbines will exceed 15 years of service [5][6]. - The first wave of large-scale retirements is expected to begin in 2024, with over 140 retirement projects already approved [6]. Challenges in Blade Recycling - The recycling market for wind turbine blades is still in its infancy, with significant challenges in processing and disposal. The cost of blade recycling has dropped significantly, leading to potential environmental issues due to improper disposal methods [7][8]. - As of the end of 2024, approximately 2,317 wind turbines have been dismantled, generating around 350,000 tons of steel, 11,000 tons of copper, and 23,000 tons of composite materials [7]. Solutions and Innovations - Companies are beginning to invest in research and development for blade recycling technologies. For instance, Dragon Source Environmental has established a demonstration line for blade recycling with a capacity of 1,000 tons per year [9]. - The industry is exploring various strategies for blade utilization, such as creating artificial reefs from old blades, which can be more cost-effective than traditional materials [9]. Future Market Potential - The market for wind turbine blade recycling is projected to reach a scale of 10 billion yuan by 2030, but currently, only about 10 companies have the capacity for large-scale processing [10]. - To ensure sustainable development, the industry requires technological innovation, policy guidance, and market mechanisms to address the challenges posed by the upcoming retirement wave [10][11].
【新华财经调查】风电退役潮即将来临 对市场影响几何?
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-14 14:48