Is it Time to Buy or Sell Dollar General as It Slips Below 50-Day SMA?

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General Corporation (DG) is experiencing a potential short-term bearish trend as its stock has slipped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), closing at $86.85, which is 41.3% below its 52-week high of $147.87 [1][5] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Dollar General shares have declined by 1.8%, while the S&P 500 index rose by 8% and the industry increased by 4.7% [5] - Competitors such as Dollar Tree, Target, and Costco have seen their shares rise by 19.4%, 7.6%, and 2.3%, respectively, during the same period [5] Valuation Analysis - Dollar General is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.18, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 32.64 and the S&P 500's P/E of 21.59 [7] - The stock appears overvalued compared to its median P/E level of 13.62 observed over the past year [7] - It is trading at a premium to Target (P/E of 10.89) but at a discount to Dollar Tree (15.88) and Costco (51.97) [8] Challenges Facing the Company - Dollar General's core customer base is facing financial strain due to inflation and economic pressures, leading to a 1.1% decline in traffic in the final quarter of fiscal 2024 [10] - Management anticipates selling, general, and administrative expenses to deleverage in 2025, citing retail wage inflation of 3.5%-4% and other cost pressures [11] - The company projects a year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of fiscal 2025, with expected declines of 11.5% and 7.6% in the first and second quarters, respectively [12] Strategic Initiatives - Dollar General is implementing a "back-to-basics" initiative, achieving a 6.9% reduction in inventory per store and removing approximately 1,000 SKUs to improve efficiency [13] - The company plans 4,885 real estate projects in 2025, including 575 new stores in the U.S. and up to 15 in Mexico, alongside remodeling efforts for 2,000 stores [14] - Dollar General is expanding its same-day delivery initiative through a partnership with DoorDash, aiming to reach up to 10,000 stores by the end of 2025 [15] - The company is also working to increase non-consumable offerings by at least 100 basis points by 2027 to support margin expansion [16]