观酒 | 超千亿存货压顶！渠道拿不动货了，酒企却还在扩产

Core Viewpoint - The inventory situation in the liquor industry has shifted from being a source of profit to a burden for distributors due to declining terminal prices and rising storage costs [1][2]. Inventory Trends - 90% of liquor companies are experiencing an increase in inventory, with companies like Gujinggongjiu showing over 20% year-on-year growth [2]. - As of the end of 2024, 18 out of 20 listed liquor companies reported a year-on-year increase in inventory, with Gujinggongjiu's inventory growing by 25.27% [2]. - The inventory of semi-finished products (including base liquor) at Gujinggongjiu rose from 234,300 tons in 2023 to 293,500 tons in 2024 [2]. Inventory Pressure Transmission - High inventory risks are shifting from the market to upstream enterprises due to weak demand and reduced sales [3]. - The inventory turnover rates and other indicators for liquor companies are deteriorating, indicating a broader industry issue [3]. Inventory Proportions - Over 40% of inventory proportion is reported in several companies, with 13 out of 20 companies showing a year-on-year increase in inventory proportion by the end of 2024 [4]. - By the first quarter of 2025, 17 out of 20 companies continued to show an increase in inventory proportion, with companies like Kuozi Jiao and Shede Jiuye exceeding 40% [4]. - Head companies like Moutai maintain lower inventory proportions, generally below 20% [4]. Market Dynamics - The social attributes of Chinese liquor remain unchanged, particularly for high-end products, which still have strong demand in social settings [5]. - The disparity in inventory levels is influenced by the product structure and development stage of each company [5]. Channel and Inventory Interaction - The differentiation in inventory levels is also reflected in the channel dynamics, with leading companies having established robust sales networks, while smaller companies struggle with market penetration [6]. Base Liquor Inventory Growth - Among the 20 liquor companies, 12 reported an upward trend in inventory goods, with all 16 companies reporting an increase in semi-finished product inventory [7]. - Companies like Jiugui Jiu reported that their inventory accounted for over 34% of total assets, with base liquor making up 67.75% of their inventory value [7]. Production Expansion Amidst Overcapacity - Many liquor companies are still expanding production despite the recognized overcapacity in the industry [8]. - Companies like Shede Jiuye and Jiugui Jiu have low capacity utilization rates, yet continue to expand production [8]. Price Control Strategies - In response to overcapacity and market adjustments, many liquor companies are adopting "volume control to support prices" strategies [9]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by supply-demand relationships, with companies actively reducing inventory pressure to maintain price differentials [9].