Hertz Faces Tough Road Ahead, Analyst Says Earnings Recovery Unlikely Before 2026

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman maintains an Underweight rating on Hertz Global Holdings, indicating concerns about the sustainability of the company's earnings despite recent partnerships and pricing strategies [1][3]. Financial Performance - Hertz reported first-quarter revenue of $1.81 billion, which fell short of the $2 billion analyst consensus, marking a 13% year-over-year decline [4]. - The company also experienced a first-quarter adjusted loss of $1.12 per share, compared to an expected loss of 97 cents per share [4]. Earnings Outlook - Brinkman suggests that while Hertz may appear undervalued based on normalized earnings, the company is not expected to reach those levels until after 2026 [3]. - The company is projected to generate negative free cash flow in 2024 and 2025, which will limit its ability to repurchase shares at current lower prices [3]. Operational Initiatives - Hertz is making progress on cost efficiency initiatives, including partnerships with technology firms aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational productivity [5]. - The company is implementing improvements to its revenue management system and deploying AI tools for vehicle inspection and pricing optimization [5]. - Management has reaffirmed expectations for the progression of EBITDA throughout the year [5]. Market Reaction - Hertz shares are trading lower by 2.88% to $5.60 at the time of publication [6].