Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a rice crisis characterized by high prices and shortages, reflecting deep-rooted issues in its agricultural policies and practices [1][6][8]. Group 1: Current Rice Prices and Market Dynamics - As of late April to early May, the average price of rice in Japan was 4,214 yen per 5 kilograms, a decrease of 19 yen from the previous week, marking the first decline in 18 weeks, yet still about double the price from the same period last year [1]. - Despite a slight decrease in rice prices, experts predict limited room for further declines due to high prices of branded rice [1][8]. - The ongoing rice shortage has led to limited purchasing options in supermarkets, with some stores implementing purchase limits [5][12]. Group 2: Agricultural Policies and Historical Context - The rice shortage, referred to as the "Reiwa rice turmoil," is attributed to policies aimed at protecting farmers, extreme weather, and the long-term effects of the "reduction policy" that limited rice production [6][7]. - The "reduction policy," which was in place until its repeal in 2018, aimed to stabilize rice prices by controlling production, but has led to a lack of flexibility in the market [6][7]. - Following the repeal, rice production has continued to decline, with actual production from 2018 to 2023 decreasing despite plans for increased output [7]. Group 3: Economic Impact on Farmers - Rising rice prices have not translated into increased profits for farmers due to soaring costs of fertilizers, fuel, and machinery, which have risen by approximately 30%, 25%, and 15% respectively since 2021 [10][11]. - The distribution structure in Japan compresses farmers' profit margins, as many rely on cooperatives or wholesalers that charge high fees [10]. - The aging farmer population and declining interest in agriculture among younger generations exacerbate the challenges faced by the industry [9][11]. Group 4: Government Response and Future Outlook - The Japanese government has begun releasing reserve rice and increasing imports to address the crisis, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain [12][14]. - Experts warn that increased imports could diminish the incentive for domestic rice production, potentially leading to long-term challenges for the agricultural sector [12][13]. - The rice crisis may have broader implications for global rice trade dynamics, affecting supply chains and pricing in other countries [8][14].
财经观察：“米荒危机”背后，日本吞下“轻农”苦果
Huan Qiu Shi Bao·2025-05-14 22:50