周期底部徘徊，把握化工结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a low level of prosperity, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in the future. The performance of the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors has shown significant divergence, influenced by factors such as oil price fluctuations and market demand [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the petrochemical sector achieved revenue of 1,015.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, while the basic chemical sector reported revenue of 607.0 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petrochemical sector was 17.0 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, whereas the basic chemical sector saw a net profit of 37.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - For the full year of 2024, the petrochemical sector is projected to generate revenue of 43,056 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2%, while the basic chemical sector is expected to reach 24,970 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Cost and Demand Dynamics - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 65.3 USD/barrel, reflecting a decline of 12.9% from Q1 2025 and 23.2% from Q2 2024 [3]. - The petrochemical and basic chemical sectors experienced year-on-year capital expenditure growth rates of -24.5% and -5.3%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in investment [3]. - Despite challenges in international trade, the resilience of China's chemical exports is anticipated, particularly with the potential release of domestic demand driven by ongoing policy support [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors are 18.2x and 23.7x, respectively, indicating a premium compared to historical averages [4]. - The basic chemical sector is viewed as undervalued, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [4]. - Key investment themes include expanding domestic demand, fostering new production capabilities, and capitalizing on high-performing resource sectors [5].